Donald Trump has a slight 3-point edge over Kamala Harris in Arizona, boosted by the issues of the economy and the border. Harris has advantages with voters who prioritize abortion and the state of democracy, keeping this race close.
Voters think Trump's policies would put the interests of U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants, where many feel Harris' policies would not. And Trump's idea of deporting all immigrants in the U.S. illegally is supported by more than half of Arizona voters.
It's a somewhat different picture in the race for U.S. Senate: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points. Gallego is helped by some Republicans and independents who are splitting their ticket by voting for Trump for president and against Lake for Senate, who most Arizona voters say is extreme.
The economy and rising prices: Advantage Trump
Inflation continues to be on the minds of Arizona voters. Most say prices of the things they buy have been rising in recent months, and those who feel this way are backing Trump over Harris.
More voters think they will personally be financially better off if Trump wins than if Harris does.
The border and immigration: Advantage Trump
Of all the issues measured in the poll, Trump enjoys his widest lead over Harris among the Arizona voters who call the border a major factor in their vote. Throughout this campaign, it's an issue that has mattered more to Republicans than Democrats.
Voters have contrasting views of how the candidate's policies would impact the number of migrants trying to cross the border. Most voters think border crossings will go down with Trump in office, while a slight majority thinks they think they will increase due to Harris' policies.
Beyond the issue of the border, opinions of how recent immigration has affected life in Arizona shapes voters' presidential preferences. Those who feel recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse are backing Trump, while those who feel recent immigrants have improved life in the state or haven't had much impact are backing Harris.
And most voters view Trump's policies as putting the interests of current U.S. citizens ahead of the interests of recent immigrants, while many view Harris' policies as putting the interests of recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens.
Trump's idea of starting a national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally is overwhelmingly supported by his voters, and it also finds favor with more than half of Arizona voters overall. We see similar support for this nationally.
Abortion: Advantage Harris
The issue of abortion helped keep Democrats competitive in 2022, and it's helping Harris in 2024, but it isn't enough right now to push her ahead of Trump. Here's why.
Most voters support abortion being legal in Arizona, and there is slim majority support for Proposition 139, a ballot measure that would establish a right to abortion in the state's constitution, but this support for legal abortion doesn't all translate into support for Harris. There is a sizable percentage of voters — 1 in 5 — who say they will vote in favor of Proposition 139 but will cast their presidential vote for Trump.
And as we've seen in our national polling, Arizona voters are more apt to think Trump will leave the matter of abortion to the states, so the Harris campaign's argument that Trump will try to put a national abortion ban in place has not resonated with most Arizona voters outside the Democratic Party.
Also, while Harris leads Trump by a wide margin among voters who say abortion is a major factor in their vote, far more voters place a priority on the economy and inflation, and Trump leads Harris on those issues.
Democracy: Advantage Harris
The state of democracy is a top issue for voters — only the economy and inflation are cited by more voters as a major factor in their vote. And as we've seen nationally, Harris leads Trump among those who say democracy is a major factor in their vote. It's not by as wide a margin as her lead on abortion, but it's a factor that is keeping this contest close.
Latino voters
Arizona's Latino voters are backing Harris over Trump, but not by quite as wide a margin as they backed Joe Biden over Trump in 2020. Harris has not convinced most Latino voters that her policies will help their own personal financial situation (Trump hasn't either), but personal finances are related to presidential vote choice. Latino voters who feel good about their own finances are backing Harris, but those who say their personal financial situation is in bad shape are more divided in their vote.
And Trump's idea of a program that would deport all immigrants in the U.S. illegally finds support with some Latino voters, although most oppose the idea.
Arizona's election system
Skepticism about the outcome of the 2020 election remains widespread among Arizona Republicans and those backing Trump. They overwhelmingly do not consider Joe Biden the legitimate winner of Arizona in 2020, and today, a mere 9% of Trump voters are very confident that the elections in their state will be handled in a fair and accurate manner. This stands in stark contrast to Harris voters.
As we look ahead to November, nearly half of Trump's backers would like to see the election in Arizona challenged and investigated if Harris wins, while most Harris voters say the results of the election should be accepted no matter who wins.
The Senate race
In Arizona's Senate race, Lake trails Gallego by 9 points, largely due to a number of Republicans and independents who are splitting their ticket by voting for Trump in the presidential race and Gallego for Senate.
Lake is seen as extreme by most Arizona voters — including by Trump supporters who plan to vote Gallego in the Senate race — while Gallego is seen by most Arizona voters as reasonable.
Lake holds a commanding lead among those who think recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse, a view held by nearly half of Arizona voters.
But even among those voting for her, she appears to garner less personal appeal than Trump does at the top of the ticket. While most of Trump's voters support him because they like him, most of Lake's voters are supporting her either because she's the Republican nominee or to oppose her Democratic opponent.
Gallego, on the other hand, has a clear lead among moderates and independents (independents are more divided between Harris and Trump), and he gets the support of more than a quarter of Republicans who don't identify with the MAGA movement.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,439 registered voters in Arizona interviewed between October 11-16, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on U.S. Census data and voter files, as well as to past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.3 points.
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