A political drama triggered 10 days ago by the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) capped off with the ouster of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ on Friday.
Prachanda, the chairman of the CPN (Maoist Centre), failed his vote of confidence, fifth in one and a half years since he was elected Prime Minister in December 2022, leading to the fall of his government. Of the 258 parliamentarians present in the 275-member Parliament, 63 voted in favour of Prachanda, while 194 voted against. One lawmaker abstained.
President Ram Chandra Poudel on Friday evening called on parties to present a claim, latest by 5 p.m. on Sunday, to form a new government.
As per a deal reached between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, the two largest parties in Parliament with 88 and 78 seats, respectively, the UML’s K.P. Sharma Oli staked claim to lead the government.
Speaking in Parliament, Prachanda said he was betrayed [by Oli] and that he was well aware of who “brought” the NC and the UML together but stopped short of naming anyone. He also said the NC and the UML were making attempts to reverse the Constitution to 1990 and rob people of achievements like inclusion and social justice. The Constitution promulgated in 1990 after the restoration of democracy maintained the constitutional monarchy.
“The Maoists have made the highest contribution to the current Constitution. So the Maoists will not let this Constitution weaken,” said Prachanda. “We had saved this Constitution, achieved with a long struggle of the oppressed and marginalised when attempts were made to destroy it [in the past].”
Prachanda’s fall
As the NC and the UML signed a deal to form a new government, it was a foregone conclusion that Prachanda would lose the confidence vote. The two parties said they had to come together to form a new government so as to establish political stability, amend the Constitution, address the plight of the people and boost the economy.
According to the deal, Mr. Oli would govern for a year and a half, and set the ground for constitutional amendments and then hand over power to the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba to oversee the 2027 elections.
Political stability, however, has been a chimera in Nepal. There have been over a dozen governments since the country abolished the centuries-old monarchy and turned into a republic in 2008.
“Government change has been the only constant in Nepal, what’s missing is governance,” said Chandrakishore, a political commentator. “The new government inspires little hope when it comes to basic governance issues.”
Ever since the Maoists laid down arms in 2006 after a decade-long war against the state, Prachanda, 69, has been at the centre of Nepal’s politics. With the fall of his government, Prachanda, who was in his third stint as Prime Minister, has now been thrown into the Opposition after nine years.
Despite fighting the November 2022 general elections under an alliance with the NC, he joined hands with the UML to become Prime Minister in December of that year. But in February 2023, the UML withdrew support in protest of Prachanda’s decision to support the NC’s Ram Chandra Poudel for the post of President. A year later, Prachanda ditched the NC to join hands with the UML again.
“His ouster was just a matter of time,” said Jhalak Subedi, a left-leaning commentator. “Prachanda may be down but not out, as there are questions galore over the longevity of the NC-UML alliance.”
Oli’s return to power
Two House dissolution moves had cost Mr. Oli his job in July 2022 after the Supreme Court ordered the appointment of Mr. Deuba as Prime Minister. It was Mr. Oli’s second stint as Prime Minister after 2015-16 following the promulgation of the Constitution.
Mr. Oli had capitalised on India’s reservations about the Constitution in 2015 and made nationalism his plank for the 2017 general elections. A merger decision between the UML and the Maoist Centre catapulted Mr. Oli into power as the leader of the largest party, controlling almost two-thirds majority in Parliament.
During his speech in Parliament earlier in the day, Prachanda made scathing remarks against Mr. Oli and warned the NC of a possible dissolution attempt, reminding Mr. Oli’s two dissolutions in 2020 and 2021.
“I am worried about regression and authoritarianism,” he said. “An alliance of two largest parties fuels anarchy and weakens democracy.”
Mr. Chandrakishore says Mr. Oli is a leader who can pull off more Machiavellian tricks than any other politician in Nepal. “Under Oli, or the UML-NC government for that matter, stability and issues of social justice, service delivery, development or people’s concerns are unlikely to be the priority,” he said. “Rather, the danger is that the NC and the UML might take some regressive steps in the name of constitutional amendments.”
Mr. Subedi also said political stability is a ruse woven by the two parties to gain power. “Did not Oli have a majority a few years ago? Why wasn’t there stability then?,” he asked.
The deal, however, has been kept under wraps.
“The NC and the UML decided to come together after they realised that a gallimaufry of skeletons would start tumbling out of their closets,” said Mr. Chandrakishore. “How can one see the light of hope from a deal that two parties have signed in a dark room?”
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