As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile programme offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses.
The programme was behind Iran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel in April, when Iran became the first nation to launch such a barrage since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.
But few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a U.S.-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks.
Now a new report by experts suggests one of Tehran’s most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought.
The April assault showed “some ability to strike Israel,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who worked on the analysis. But “if I were the Supreme Leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.”
‘Just terror weapons’
If Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role,” Mr. Lair added. “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.”
Iran has repeatedly said it will retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Israel is widely suspected of carrying out the assassination, though it has not claimed it.
But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tacitly acknowledged the country’s failure to strike anything of importance in Israel. “Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance,” Mr. Khamenei said.
“The main issue is the emergence of the Iranian nation” and the Iranian military “in an important international arena. This is what matters.”
Retaliation had been expected for days after a suspected Israeli strike on April 1 hit an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing two Iranian generals and five officers, as well as a member of the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah.
Footage aired on state television showed that Iran’s April 13 assault began with Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami speaking by telephone with Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Guard’s aerospace division.
“Start the ‘True Promise’ operation against Zionist regime’s bases,” he ordered.
Grainy footage later released showed missiles thundering off truck-based mobile launchers. Iran’s bomb-carrying Shahed drones leaped off metal stands, their engines whirring like lawnmowers through the night sky.
Drones and missiles also came from Yemen, likely fired by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
Israeli officials estimated that Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.
The U.S., the U.K., France and Jordan all shot down incoming fire. The Americans claimed to have downed 80 bomb-carrying drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Israeli missile defences were also activated, though their initial claim of intercepting 99% of the projectiles appeared to be an exaggeration.
The attack “was very clearly not something symbolic and not something trying to avoid damage,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert. It was “a major attempt to overcome Israeli defences.”
U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they assessed that 50% of the Iranian missiles failed at launch or crashed before reaching their target.
The poor performance may be attributable to electronic warfare measures designed to confuse the missile’s guidance system, as well as potential sabotage, poor missile design and the distances involved in the attack.
Threat patterns
In the past, Iranian threats to retaliate against Israel generally took the form of either attacks by Iranian-backed forces in West Asia or assaults aimed at Israeli targets elsewhere, such as embassies or tourists aboard.
Geography limits the options for a direct Iranian military attack. Iran shares no border with Israel, and the two countries are some 1,000 km apart at the shortest distance.
Iran’s air force has an ageing fleet led by F-14 Tomcats and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets from the Cold War, but they would be no match for Israel’s F-35Is and its air defences. That means Iran again would need to rely on missiles and long-range drones.
It could also enlist help from allied militias such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to overwhelm Israel’s defences.
Always present in the background is the risk that Tehran could develop a nuclear weapon. While Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, Western intelligence agencies say Tehran had an organised military nuclear programme until 2003.
U.S. agencies said in a report in July Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” However, building a weapon and miniaturising it to put on a ballistic missile could take years.
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