More than 60% of Indians and more than half of all Pakistanis surveyed believe the two countries cannot have friendly relations in this decade, says a new survey by the Centre for Policy Research (CPR)-C Voter that looks at the attitudes of Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis on a number of political, economic and foreign policy issues. The downturn in ties between India and Pakistan since 2016, after which no high-level bilateral talks have been held, is clearly mirrored in the mood in the two countries, shows the survey, which reached out to about 100,000 respondents, 12,000 of whom completed the survey in total across the three countries.
In contrast, previous surveys in 2011 and 2013 had indicated a much higher optimism for reconciliation in the subcontinent, with the ‘Aman ki Asha (hope for peace)‘ poll in 2011 showing two-thirds of people surveyed in both countries had felt that peace was “attainable in their lifetimes”, up 35% since the 2011 survey.
The survey was carried out in 2022, the organisers of the exercise said, and its results were released last week in Delhi in a report entitled ‘South Asia in a Changing World: What Citizens in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh think 75 years post-Partition’.
“What we have learnt is that South Asians are comfortable with several contradictions. While there is still much nostalgia about the Partition, they also now believe India and Pakistan cannot be friendly nations, “ explained CPR’s Rahul Verma, who co-authored the report.
According to the survey, 48% Indians, but only 31% Pakistanis and 32% Bangladeshis would favour a “reversal” in the conditions created by the 1947 Partition. However, 62% of Indians felt it was unlikely and 28% said that it was likely that India and Pakistan could become friendly in the near future, while 52% of respondents in Pakistan said it was unlikely, and 38% said it was likely. Significantly, respondents in Bangladesh were more positive about the possibility of India-Pakistan ties, with more respondents there (45%) saying good relations were likely, and 40% saying they were unlikely.
The survey results came even as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar conceded at a public event last week that the chances of dialogue with Pakistan were now bleak. “I think the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over. Actions have consequences,” he said, speaking at the release of a book, Strategic Conundrums: Reshaping India’s Foreign Policy by former diplomat Rajiv Sikri in Delhi on Friday, where Dr. Jaishankar defended the Modi government’s policy in the neighbourhood.
“Insofar as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, Article 370 is done. So the issue today is — what kind of relationship can we possibly contemplate with Pakistan?” Dr. Jaishankar added, warning that India’s responses to “positive or negative events” would be reactive rather than passive. All eyes are now on how New Delhi will respond to an invitation from Pakistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s Heads of Government meet on October 15-16, as no Indian Minister has travelled to Pakistan in more than eight years.
When asked about the role of global powers in the regions, the CPR-C Voter survey found that Indians believe their country had the highest influence in South Asia, while Pakistanis and Bangladeshis felt China had the most influence in the region, followed by the United States. Indians were the least concerned about Chinese interference (less than half) while more than two thirds of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis showed ‘high concern’ over Chinese interference, which is significant given the two countries have much closer bilateral ties with Beijing than India does.
Meanwhile, more Indians said they trust Russia than the United States, while only 18% said they trust China. Pakistani respondents also said they trusted Russia more than the U.S., although more than 84% trusted China, by far the most. For Bangladesh too, Russia was the most trusted (76%), while trust levels in the U.S. and China were equal (68% each).
The survey received completed responses on 75-80 questions dealing with the state of democracy, the strength of institutions, as well as trends in economic progress, and authoritarian tendencies of the leadership.
“It seems that South Asians like strong leaders and technocrats,” Dr. Verma said, commenting on the results of the survey, which found most respondents quite optimistic about the future economic condition of their countries despite present distress. A large proportion felt that South Asia was becoming “more religious”, and a small proportion felt that the status of minorities and underprivileged groups was “worse than expected” in the three countries. Surprisingly, Bangladeshis worried the least about corruption and poverty in their country while Indians and Pakistanis largely felt both were “very big issues”.
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