China’s wheat buying spree is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 as higher domestic output and declining flour consumption reduce import demand in the world’s biggest consumer of the grain.
China has made record wheat purchases in recent years and a reduction in buying is expected to put additional pressure on global prices, which are trading close to their lowest in four years amid plentiful supply, traders and analysts said.
Estimates for China’s July-to-December wheat imports range between 2 million and 4 million tons, according to a survey of one China-based and two Singapore-based grains traders, down from 4.09 million tons shipped in the second half of 2023.
“There is lack of interest from Chinese wheat importers ever since supplies from this year’s harvest hit the market,” said one of the Singapore-based traders, who works for an international company that ships grain to China.
“They are booking fewer cargoes. China’s demand is unlikely to be as strong as we have seen in the past.”
China’s output of summer wheat rose 2.7% from a year ago to a record 138.22 million tons, with near-perfect growing conditions boosting quality.
China bought 10.08 million metric tonnes between January and July, up 15.6% from a year earlier, according to customs data, mostly from the U.S., France, Australia, and Canada.
Those imports, fuelled by fears of weather-related crop damage, exceed the wheat import quota allocated by Beijing for 2024, and the additional volumes will have an import duty of 65%.
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