Tropical Storm Debby became the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday, and is likely to bring drenching rain and coastal flooding to much of Florida's Gulf Coast beginning as soon as this weekend.
Forecasters said the depression turned into a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of Florida.
Debbie was centered about 70 miles northwest of Havana, Cuba, on Saturday afternoon, and was 100 miles southwest of Key West, Florida, according to the hurricane center. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving northwest at 15 mph.
It was forecast to continue strengthening before it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast by late Sunday night or Monday, the hurricane center said, and will "likely be at or near hurricane strength" when it makes landfall.
A hurricane warning was in place for the Florida Gulf Coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.
Wind and thunderstorms were already spread out over a broad region, including southern and central Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.
Debby is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season after Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris, all of which formed in June.
Debby strengthens as the system nears Florida
The National Hurricane Center in Miami forecasts that Debby will strengthen as it curves northward off the southwest Florida coast, where the water has been extremely warm, with temperatures approaching 92 degrees Fahrenheit this week. On Saturday, the moisture associated with this wave was expected to produce rounds of heavy rain and flooding.
Predictions show the system could come ashore as a strong tropical storm or hurricane and cross over northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, where it's likely to remain a tropical storm threatening Georgia and the Carolinas early next week.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Saturday issued a state of emergency ahead of Debby's arrival.
A warning means storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, while a watch means that storm effects are possible within 48 hours.
Flash flooding and potential storm surge
Tropical storms and hurricanes can trigger river flooding and overwhelm drainage systems and the region's canals. Forecasters are warning of 5 to 10 inches of rain, which could create "locally considerable" flash and urban flooding. Forecasters are already warning of moderate flooding for some rivers along Florida's West Coast.
Some of the heaviest rains could actually come next week in a region along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, north through coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The storm is expected to slow down after making landfall.
"We could see a stall or a meandering motion around coastal portions of the southeastern United States," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a Saturday briefing. "So that's going to exacerbate not just the rainfall risk, but also the potential for storm surge and some strong winds."
Flat Florida is prone to flooding even on sunny days when so-called king tides surge in coastal areas, and the storm is predicted to push up storm tides of 2 to 4 feet along most of Florida's Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, with a higher tide of 3 to 5 feet predicted farther north in Florida's sparsely populated Big Bend region.
Forecasters issued a storm surge warning on Saturday, saying there's "a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation" in a region that includes Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. Citrus County officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas.
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